10million+ subs, 6 years, it's not like we are talking about Halo or Call of Duty here. Warcraft is pretty big amongst PC gamers but again, 6 years later, over 10million subs, your argument is a little out dated I think.
I get what you are saying, that it's not your standard MMO, but it is for majority of MMO players.
Yes. If you look at overall market share. However, that will not apply to rift players, and here's why:
People are reluctant to leave an MMO behind once they are established. What makes this easier is changes in management, lack of new content, bored with the same gameplay, etc. The real hooks that keep people in are people and progression, which is why often its more likely for entire guilds to swap MMOs rather than individual players. Existing social networks are preferable for people to stick with. So current WoW subscribers are unlikely to move to rift, unless they are already looking.
Assuming wow has 60% of the market for easy math(and its a fairly accurate estimate), that leaves another 40% out there that do not
play wow. That's a lot of people. Those people are the real
market for rift, simply due to MMO dynamics. People have been highly disappointed with every most MMO releases lately, Everquest 2 had a massive exodus this year. WoW is releasing a major expansion and world change, enabling them to retain many people for at least the next 6 months.
So... for the prospective rift playerbase, wow is absolutely not the standard that people moving to rift will be looking at. They will be looking at Aion, WAR, AoC, EQ2, EQ1,, FF11. But not WoW.
Wanted to add this fact, quoted from the press release:
"World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards."
That 12 million number includes accounts that have lapsed, but remain "active" due to time cards or cata beta access. Also 6-7 million of those are likely in asia, where the game is played via pre-played time cards rather than subscriptions(Internet game room, its a weird system). The actual subscription rate will never be released by Blizzard. Edited, Nov 28th 2010 7:14pm by Cyanix Edited, Nov 28th 2010 7:18pm by Cyanix