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How many subscribers does Rift need to survive?Follow

#1 Jan 26 2011 at 6:46 PM Rating: Decent
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According to Facebook they have reached 85k likes and there are people among that number that are not subscribing as well as people not among that number that will be.

So does anybody know the number of subscribers needed within X amount of time for Rift to (not necassarily be a success although that number would be nice to) but survive and continue to be Rift?

I have no real reference point. So anybody who definitely knows or knows of a source that I can check out to find out would be appreciated.

(This is not about whether Rift will be stealing subscribers or where they come from just asking what they 'need'(for lack of a better word atm))

Edited, Jan 26th 2011 7:46pm by Danex317
#2 Jan 26 2011 at 7:03 PM Rating: Decent
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Games that fall below the 100k mark for subscribers within the first year usually go belly up. An example of this would be DDO, which apparently had something like 90k subscriptions when Turbine took it f2p to try and make it viable. You can have a game with 200-300k players and it will make money for the developers but it will most likely undergo major changes in a concerted attempt to draw in more people. An example of this would be LOTRO where Turbine was making money but after their experience with DDO, they decided that making LOTRO f2p would bring in both more players and more money.

I would expect to see Rift hit well over 500k subscribers in the first three months. And I think that's a fairly conservative estimate.
#3 Jan 26 2011 at 7:06 PM Rating: Decent
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Facebook likes is an absolutely terrible measure of anything.

MMORPGs largely survive very easily and for a long time, in that the servers continue being hosted and players are able to log in and play. FFXIV is still around, even though it hemorrhaged 85% of its player base.

For MMORPGs it's not a binary status, it's a question of degree. More subscribers--more revenue--can lead to increases in new content development. You get updates, additions, and expansions when you have a strong player population. Lower revenues means less of this.

Without access to their financial books it's impossible to know the number of break-even subscriptions they require. I do know that Rift was spent quite some time in development and has been a larger investment for Trion than many MMORPGs of comparable status. It's an above average gamble, and will likely need to be more successful than Lotro or Warhammer to produce the results expected by investors.
#4 Jan 26 2011 at 8:26 PM Rating: Decent
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RIFT can feasibly survive with less than 100k subscribers especially with a smaller developer with Trion.

Judging by my (so far short) Beta experience along with my (long) MMO experience RIFT is looking at a very large opening subscriber base, a lot of boxes sold. WAR sold 800k so possibly between 700-900k for RIFT. Then once the free month ends there will be a significant drop to 400-500k players. If it maintains that number RIFT will thrive.

edit: With a reportedly 50 million budget, things become a little more dicey for Trion. Chances are the game will come out fine though.

Then again I'm also seeing a lot of burning out come level 20. The rift's are always the same thing, essentially Warcraft PQ's 1.5. The game has a lot of polish but thats not enough to keep players playing. Maybe we really will see another Warhammer* type failure. Who knows? This isn't the thread for that kind of discussion.


Edited, Jan 26th 2011 10:51pm by Wloire
#5 Jan 26 2011 at 11:35 PM Rating: Decent
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Wloire wrote:
Maybe we really will see another Warhammer* type failure. Who knows? This isn't the thread for that kind of discussion.

If Rift fails, it doesn't seem it will be for the same reason as Warhammer. Warhamemr didn't fail because of the gameplay, but because the servers were unresponsive, there were poorly designed pvp scenarios (tier 2 was incredibly ridiculous), and significant class imbalances that couldn't be dealt with because the classes were faction locked.

While in Rifts I am having no delay presently, which is a big improvement over beta 4. I haven't tried the pvp scenarios yet, but I don't they'll make the same pitfall-knockback combo that plagued WAR. Classes might be imbalanced, but they'll be imbalanced for both factions.
#6 Jan 26 2011 at 11:57 PM Rating: Decent
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Allegory wrote:
Wloire wrote:
Maybe we really will see another Warhammer* type failure. Who knows? This isn't the thread for that kind of discussion.

If Rift fails, it doesn't seem it will be for the same reason as Warhammer. Warhamemr didn't fail because of the gameplay, but because the servers were unresponsive, there were poorly designed pvp scenarios (tier 2 was incredibly ridiculous), and significant class imbalances that couldn't be dealt with because the classes were faction locked.

While in Rifts I am having no delay presently, which is a big improvement over beta 4. I haven't tried the pvp scenarios yet, but I don't they'll make the same pitfall-knockback combo that plagued WAR. Classes might be imbalanced, but they'll be imbalanced for both factions.


People will get past technical issues though. Gameplay issues not so much. If the RIFT's aren't truly dynamic (as It would seem so far) by release what is there to keep players interested past the free month. I would even go so far to say that WAR's PQ's were selectively better than the rifts. The dynamic spawns are irrelevant especially since multiple RIFT's tend to spawn per area. There is no "character" to a rift spawn, no storyline. Whereas the better PQ's (because there were a **** load of bad ones), had great themes/lore behind them and interesting objectives (set a boat on fire after repelling its invaders?).
#7 Jan 27 2011 at 12:15 AM Rating: Decent
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Wloire wrote:
People will get past technical issues though.

No they won't. Having a half second second or more delay between when you activate an ability and when the server registers it is not something people get over. I played a healer in WAR and it frustrated me to no end seeing people shoot up to full on my screen and flash dead because the server registered my action too late.

Edited, Jan 27th 2011 12:16am by Allegory
#8 Jan 27 2011 at 1:56 AM Rating: Good
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Wloire wrote:
People will get past technical issues though. Gameplay issues not so much. If the RIFT's aren't truly dynamic (as It would seem so far) by release what is there to keep players interested past the free month. I would even go so far to say that WAR's PQ's were selectively better than the rifts. The dynamic spawns are irrelevant especially since multiple RIFT's tend to spawn per area. There is no "character" to a rift spawn, no storyline. Whereas the better PQ's (because there were a sh*t load of bad ones), had great themes/lore behind them and interesting objectives (set a boat on fire after repelling its invaders?).


There is a story behind the rift spawns...it's the major, overarching theme of the game. And so far, every zone I've quested through has had a major quest line that explains what is going on in that zone. Why so many life rifts in Silverwood? Quest through Overwatch Keep and find out. Death rifts in Gloamwood? Do the Hag quest series and find out what that's all about. There are numerous different factions in the game, each with a stake in what is going on.

The dynamic spawns aren't irrelevant. They're what make the zones...dynamic. No other game I've seen does that. Public quests in WAR were static. Always the same quests in the same places, repeating over and over again. Everywhere else were the same common mobs all the time. And the common spawn rifts in Rift are just the tip of the iceberg. The zone-wide events are when things get crazy. Last night we got treated to one event that ended up with a giant werewolf with 500k HP (in a level 20-27 zone) facerolling about 50 players for a good half hour before we finally killed it. It was mayhem. And if a person was actually paying attention to what was going on with the story quests in the zone, they'd know where the werewolf came from and why it was there.

Saying that common spawn rifts have no story would be like going back in time to WW2 and saying there's no meaning behind the presence and movements of **** military units. They're there because there's a war going on. That's the story. That's the meaning. You shouldn't need a lengthy cutscene or dialogue for every rift that opens up to tell you that Telara is under siege. The common rift spawns aren't vehicles of lore...they're representations of that lore in action. You're told what's going on in the intro movie. It's explained to you in the starter zones. And if you follow through with the quests in each zone, the presence of specific rift factions in specific zones make perfect sense. "AMG I'm in goblin town! I've just spent the last four hours doing quests explaining to me what goblin town is and what's going on there, but what is this goblin town? And what's going on here?!?!"

There's objective critique, and then there's being critical without taking the time to learn what's going on. Give it a bit more time. Pay attention to what's going on in the game. Quest a bit more. (Hint: If you're not about level 20 and finished with the story quests in Silverwood (Guardian) or Freemarch (Defiant), wait until you are before you form any fixed opinions.)
#9 Jan 27 2011 at 9:11 AM Rating: Excellent
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Wloire wrote:
Gameplay issues not so much. If the RIFT's aren't truly dynamic (as It would seem so far) by release what is there to keep players interested past the free month. I would even go so far to say that WAR's PQ's were selectively better than the rifts. The dynamic spawns are irrelevant especially since multiple RIFT's tend to spawn per area. There is no "character" to a rift spawn, no storyline.


This is not true in all cases.

Scanning the Rift faction vendors last night, there were multiple items to actually spawn Rifts. The time and place seems to be able to be chosen by the player. The items are level 50 though and cost a lot of Planarite, so we won't get to see them until a later phase, or possibly not even until release.
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#10 Jan 27 2011 at 10:00 AM Rating: Good
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I do not see subs dropping at all honestly with what I have seen. Only way it can backfire is
if 10 Expert dungeons and 2 10 and 20 man raids is not enough to keep people entertained.

Open world pvp is stupid fun in this game and it is attracting one **** of a fan base.
This is not a pick it up and put it down MMO.
#11 Jan 27 2011 at 10:36 AM Rating: Good
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Puremallace wrote:
I do not see subs dropping at all honestly with what I have seen. Only way it can backfire is
if 10 Expert dungeons and 2 10 and 20 man raids is not enough to keep people entertained.

Open world pvp is stupid fun in this game and it is attracting one **** of a fan base.
This is not a pick it up and put it down MMO.

I have to agree here. Although my first few minutes in game were bad. For some reason it was all buggy and played bad and i was not a fan of the cleric class in this game. After restarting and repatching It played great. I tried a bard/ranger combination and i am loving it. The 1st few times i joined in a rift was epic xD I haven't even got to try pvp yet but i am sure it will be great. I think Rift will do just fine and the leveling in this game so far seems to be pretty casual so i wont have a problem playing this with another game or 2 on the side :).
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#12 Jan 27 2011 at 1:02 PM Rating: Good
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Puremallace wrote:
I do not see subs dropping at all honestly with what I have seen. Only way it can backfire is
if 10 Expert dungeons and 2 10 and 20 man raids is not enough to keep people entertained.

Open world pvp is stupid fun in this game and it is attracting one **** of a fan base.
This is not a pick it up and put it down MMO.

Good attitude and I hope you're right :D
#13 Jan 27 2011 at 3:25 PM Rating: Decent
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Aurelius wrote:
Wloire wrote:
People will get past technical issues though. Gameplay issues not so much. If the RIFT's aren't truly dynamic (as It would seem so far) by release what is there to keep players interested past the free month. I would even go so far to say that WAR's PQ's were selectively better than the rifts. The dynamic spawns are irrelevant especially since multiple RIFT's tend to spawn per area. There is no "character" to a rift spawn, no storyline. Whereas the better PQ's (because there were a sh*t load of bad ones), had great themes/lore behind them and interesting objectives (set a boat on fire after repelling its invaders?).


There is a story behind the rift spawns...it's the major, overarching theme of the game. And so far, every zone I've quested through has had a major quest line that explains what is going on in that zone. Why so many life rifts in Silverwood? Quest through Overwatch Keep and find out. Death rifts in Gloamwood? Do the Hag quest series and find out what that's all about. There are numerous different factions in the game, each with a stake in what is going on.

The dynamic spawns aren't irrelevant. They're what make the zones...dynamic. No other game I've seen does that. Public quests in WAR were static. Always the same quests in the same places, repeating over and over again. Everywhere else were the same common mobs all the time. And the common spawn rifts in Rift are just the tip of the iceberg. The zone-wide events are when things get crazy. Last night we got treated to one event that ended up with a giant werewolf with 500k HP (in a level 20-27 zone) facerolling about 50 players for a good half hour before we finally killed it. It was mayhem. And if a person was actually paying attention to what was going on with the story quests in the zone, they'd know where the werewolf came from and why it was there.

Saying that common spawn rifts have no story would be like going back in time to WW2 and saying there's no meaning behind the presence and movements of **** military units. They're there because there's a war going on. That's the story. That's the meaning. You shouldn't need a lengthy cutscene or dialogue for every rift that opens up to tell you that Telara is under siege. The common rift spawns aren't vehicles of lore...they're representations of that lore in action. You're told what's going on in the intro movie. It's explained to you in the starter zones. And if you follow through with the quests in each zone, the presence of specific rift factions in specific zones make perfect sense. "AMG I'm in goblin town! I've just spent the last four hours doing quests explaining to me what goblin town is and what's going on there, but what is this goblin town? And what's going on here?!?!"

There's objective critique, and then there's being critical without taking the time to learn what's going on. Give it a bit more time. Pay attention to what's going on in the game. Quest a bit more. (Hint: If you're not about level 20 and finished with the story quests in Silverwood (Guardian) or Freemarch (Defiant), wait until you are before you form any fixed opinions.)


I know what the lore behind the RIFT's. I know why the RIFT's are opening so much all of a sudden, I know each of the Dragons, each of the Gods, all the factions and cults in between and why certain RIFT types spawn in certain zones. That's not my point.

When you hit up the good PQ's in WAR, whether or not they were static (i.e. stuck in the same place) there was a story involved for each one beyond the overreaching (Chaos is taking over blah blah blah) plot of the game. And that story was readily apparent every time you entered the PQ. With the RIFT's in game it's the same mobs each and every time depending on the zone and the RIFT with the odd event or named bad guy invasion here or there. Whereas in WAR you had different objectives to follow through with the RIFT it is nearly always kill the mobs seal the rift.

It doesn't matter that the rifts can spawn anywhere. Unless your sitting under one right when it happens you're not going to get that "oh ****" moment. Likewise there are no bloody tactics involved. The invaders will follow their set path (you can see it by hovering on the map) so you can't say divert them into another group of invaders. Every time a major incursion starts it's defend the cities, run out to the rifts, close the rifts, rinse repeat. Can you form a shield wall to block the invaders before they hit the college and flank them? Can you lead two separate planes into each other? Is there anything to do with an invasion other than kill the mobs? No its a bloody zergfest everytime and once you've seen one rift of each element, you've seen them all.

They can flash "Bonus Level Five: Supply Drop" across my screen every fire rift but I still won't know what exactly separates this group of Fire Plane creatures from their exact twins I just met.

I will say one thing though. The map I've seen so far Silverwood, Gloamwood, Sanctum and Malthosia were quite nice. Well done there.
#14 Jan 28 2011 at 12:05 PM Rating: Decent
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Wloire makes good points. I too see how repetitive the Rifts can be. It really depends what they have in store for late game though. I wouldn't mind all the repetitive rifts from 1-45 as long as the end game rifts were more involved.

They could do a lot of things with the rift spawning tokens. If they were "raid" type rifts, guilds could purchase the tokens for a bunch of different rifts, spawn them in the appropriate location, and every raid rift token could have its own unique rift with unique monsters/abilities and I think this would be amazing. As soon as players get sick of the current end game content, a bunch of new rift tokens could be released with new rewards and monsters and abilities, allowing for a non-stop stream of content without having to do the heavy load of the work (zone creation).

For me MMO's have always been about the PVE content lasting long enough until the next stuff comes out. In WoW the content expires super fast, a couple weeks and the content is already old. If this happens in Rift, perhaps they can release steady streams of rift tokens and have new encounters every day via rift tokens while we wait for the new PVE zones. Between new raid rifts and PVP it should hold most people over until the next content release. Everquest actually has had the best system for content because it seemed that 90% of the population hadn't even conquered the last 2 expansions, so there was ALWAYS progression to be made. I feel if a new game can do this people will always want to keep playing and they won't get bored because there is enough PVE/PVP content.

Now, whose to say any of this will happen? I dunno, but if Rift keeps a large amount of content coming after the "leveling" phase is over, I think it will be successful.
#15 Jan 28 2011 at 2:30 PM Rating: Decent
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Feyyd wrote:
Wloire makes good points. I too see how repetitive the Rifts can be. It really depends what they have in store for late game though. I wouldn't mind all the repetitive rifts from 1-45 as long as the end game rifts were more involved.

They could do a lot of things with the rift spawning tokens. If they were "raid" type rifts, guilds could purchase the tokens for a bunch of different rifts, spawn them in the appropriate location, and every raid rift token could have its own unique rift with unique monsters/abilities and I think this would be amazing. As soon as players get sick of the current end game content, a bunch of new rift tokens could be released with new rewards and monsters and abilities, allowing for a non-stop stream of content without having to do the heavy load of the work (zone creation).


That's what we're seeing are the raid rift tokens...including the "expert" rifts you can spawn with them. And what the devs have said is that they've set up tools so that they can do as you mentioned...create new rift events in rapid fashion. I don't know that they need to be creating new events "every day". If they're in any way challenging, you're not going to be clearing them your first night out. And even the instanced PvE content is shaping up to be more demanding than what a lot of us might be used to in WoW. I just did my first run of Foul Cascade and it was awesome. Having a chance to get in and try dungeons before detailed walkthroughs are made and having to learn the fights as you go is great fun. The group I was in managed to down two of four bosses but the "too many chiefs" approach to grouping wore me out and I stepped out when everyone was on their way back to mend their broken souls :P If that's the kind of content we're getting for level 30, I'm really looking forward to later dungeons and then the expert versions, and I'm curious to see what the raiding will be like.

The devs have said that what we're seeing in beta now with the pace of tweaks and additions is what they expect to deliver once the game is live. New events every couple of weeks would be pretty fantastic.
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